El Nino conditions likely to result in below-normal rainfall from July

The Hydrometeorological Service, Ministry of Agriculture is forecasting that below-normal amounts of rainfall are expected across Guyana from July 2023.

Typically, continuous wetness (often accompanied by localised flooding) persists until the end of July in many Regions. However, these conditions, in general, are not expected to persist beyond the end of June. The country is expected to begin transitioning into dry conditions by mid-July due to the influence of El Niño. At this stage, it is expected that El Niño will be the main driver of local weather for the remainder of the year.

Water supply in conservancies, reservoirs, and inland rivers across all regions is expected to remain adequate until the end of June and decrease thereafter. Additionally, the potential for flash floods due to heavy rainfall remains high for June, with the highest amounts of rainfall expected in Regions 7 and Northern 8.

All of Guyana can expect warmer than usual (above-normal) day and night-time temperatures over the coming months. Temperatures are expected to be warmer when compared to the same period of previous years (and recent months). Dry days will be significantly warmer than wet days.

The Hydrometeorological Service recommends that rain-fed agriculture and large-scale water users harvest rainwater during the latter part of June to compensate for deficiencies in the coming months. As heat and dust will be of concern from late July, it is recommended that shelter be provided for animals, while citizens should stay hydrated, and where possible, outdoor activities should be limited during the mid-day hours.

The Hydrometeorological Service will provide updates to its seasonal outlook as new information becomes available and recommends that special attention be paid to short-range forecasts emanating from the National Weather Watch Centre to plan daily activities.

For short-range forecasts and weather analyses, stakeholders are advised to follow the daily weather briefs, outlooks, and advisories produced by the National Weather Watch Centre or visit www.hydromet.gov.gy. The forecast desk could also be reached at 261-2284 or 261-2216.