Opposition faces scrutiny over costly election promises as 2025 race heats up
As the 2025 elections approach, the battle for leadership within Guyana’s opposition coalition, the People’s National Congress Reform (PNCR) and the Alliance for Change (AFC), is intensifying.
Aubrey Norton and Nigel Hughes, both vying for the presidential nomination of the PNCR-led A Partnership for National Unity + Alliance for Change (APNU+AFC) Coalition, have been making ambitious promises to voters, pledging substantial increases in government spending.
However, their proposals have come under sharp criticism from the General Secretary of the ruling People’s Progressive Party (PPP), Dr Bharrat Jagdeo, who argues that the opposition lacks a coherent plan to fund its promises.
At a press conference on Thursday at Freedom House in Georgetown, Dr Jagdeo dismissed the opposition’s economic pledges as unrealistic, alleging that they amount to political manoeuvring rather than serious policymaking.
“They are both going to make a series of promises to the electorate that they have no intention of fulfilling,” he said.
The opposition’s campaign has largely focused on expanding social benefits, including subsidised food and rent, cash grants, and salary increases. Their proposals echo the party’s 2015 campaign slogan of delivering a “good life for everyone,” which, Dr Jagdeo noted, failed to materialise when they were in power.
CONCERNS OVER OPPOSITION SPENDING PLANS
Economists and financial analysts have also voiced concerns over the feasibility of the PNCR/APNU+AFC’s fiscal commitments.
R. Parris, a financial expert, warned in his February 2nd column, Talking Dollars and Making Sense, that the opposition’s spending proposals could rapidly deplete Guyana’s financial reserves, including its Natural Resource Fund (NRF), which holds revenues from the country’s oil wealth.
“More concerning, these policies – when combined with existing spending priorities for various government ministries and programs – would deplete the entire Natural Resource Fund (NRF) within a year,” Parris wrote.
Among the opposition’s promises are monthly cash grants ranging from $100,000 to $150,000 per adult citizen, a $400,000 per month tax threshold, a $100,000 monthly pension for senior citizens, and a 35% salary increase for public sector workers. Parris projected that even with cost-saving measures, such as reducing corruption and reallocating capital expenditures, the opposition’s spending plan would still create a substantial budget deficit.
The NRF currently holds $646 billion, and the government anticipates a total spending power of $1.7 trillion in 2025 from oil revenues, taxes, and other income sources. However, Parris noted that just the proposed cash-grant policy would consume $900 billion, while additional tax reductions and pension hikes would further strain government finances.
“If oil prices drop to an average of $50 per barrel—a real possibility given the volatility of global energy markets—Guyana’s oil revenue could shrink by up to $185 billion,” Parris cautioned. “That would force the government to either drastically cut spending or take on significant new debt.”
HISTORICAL PARALLELS: A RETURN TO ECONOMIC INSTABILITY?
The concerns over fiscal mismanagement have sparked comparisons to Guyana’s economic struggles under previous PNCR-led administrations.
From 1964 to 1992, the country grappled with economic downturns fueled by high government spending and unsustainable borrowing.
During the 1970s, the government nationalised key industries and benefitted from strong commodity prices, but by the 1980s, falling demand for sugar and bauxite led to economic decline. Government debt skyrocketed, reaching $1.7 billion in 1988—nearly six times the country’s GDP.
To avert financial collapse, then-President Desmond Hoyte was forced to implement an International Monetary Fund-backed austerity program in the late 1980s. The economic turmoil persisted until the PPP assumed power in 1992, inheriting a debt burden that exceeded 900% of GDP and consumed 153% of revenue in debt servicing alone.
Since 2020, Guyana’s economic outlook has drastically improved.
Over the last four years, the ratio of total debt to GDP plummeted by more than 20 percentage points, from 47.4 per cent at the end of 2020 to 24.3 per cent at the end of 2024. Guyana has one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios worldwide and the second lowest debt-to-GDP ratio within the Western Hemisphere as of 2024. In 2020, the ratio of total public debt service to government revenue was 8.5 per cent. By 2024, it had fallen to 5.2 per cent.
The IMF in March 2025 said, “Rapidly expanding oil production, strong non-oil output, and large-scale public infrastructure investment supported the highest real GDP growth rate in the world, at a recorded average of 47 per cent in 2022–24. The non-oil economy continues to reflect a solid broad-based performance across sectors, especially construction and services. Real GDP and real non-oil GDP are projected to grow by about 10¼ per cent and 13 per cent in 2025, respectively.”
VOTER SKEPTICISM AMID POLITICAL INFIGHTING
Despite their promises, Norton and Hughes have also been engaged in an increasingly public rivalry for the opposition’s presidential nomination. The two have been competing for grassroots support in traditional PNCR strongholds. Hughes recently hosted a bingo event in Beterverwagting, while Norton announced a similar fundraiser at Congress Place.
Dr Jagdeo warned voters to be wary of the opposition’s pledges, urging them to reflect on their past governance record.
Nothing that the Opposition will talk up about how much they will spend, Jagdeo charged that they continue to fail to articulate how they will generate revenue—other than raising taxes on ordinary Guyanese. He referenced the over 200 tax and fee increases imposed by the PNCR/APNU+AFC between 2015 and 2020. “Everyone knows that if you are to spend money, you have to earn money,” Jagdeo charged.
